بررسی پیشران‌های حیاتی مؤثر در توسعه گردشگری (مطالعۀ موردی: شهرستان باخرز)

Tourism has numerous capabilities and constraints, and the ratio of the two provides completely different options. For this reason, investing and paying attention to each of them will yield completely different results. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the position of these factors for investment priorities. To this end, determining the main drivers is of great importance. This study attempted to study the main drivers of Bakharz County in Khorasan Razavi Province using a descriptive and analytical method. The required data was collected through qualitative interviews with 30 tourism experts. The sampling method was convenience sampling. The collected data was analyzed through interaction analysis using Scenario Wizard software. According to the results, out of 45 main drivers, the 10 drivers that have the greatest impact on the future of tourism in Bakharz County are: Orientation towards health tourism, soft infrastructure, advertising on virtual platforms, relevant human resources, diverse accommodation facilities, compliance with tourism considerations, facilitating residence and longevity, insurance, and promoting greenery and freshness. In order to determine possible scenarios, ScenarioWizard software was used. The analyses conducted in this regard revealed that four possible scenarios can be presented in this regard. Among these scenarios, the most favorable conditions were only achievable in two scenarios. Two other scenarios were presented as intermediate and somewhat favorable. The last scenario was also a crisis situation, meaning that if the current stagnant situation continues, even the current small interest will disappear.